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Tough year for the USA
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A lacklustre year, with declining summer enrolments, has defined the USA’s 2009, although there is hope that autumn bookings will pick up, and China, Saudi Arabia and Libya continue to be consistent provider countries. Amy Baker reports.
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Our US numbers are not as good as they should have been,” says David Immanuel of LSI, a school chain with a global perspective on the operating environment of 2009. His assertion is backed up by others in the industry – Rachel Kip at Rennert New York, states, “Our numbers are much lower than they were in 2008”.
Other anecdotal reports of performance among AAIEP members, circulated within the AAIEP listserv, report a decline in business from between 13 and 30 per cent variously, with Japanese bookings particularly affected at one institution. At least five members reported a decline in bookings, while some other schools said that they were steady, but attributed Saudi and Libyan bookings as the main bolster in an uncertain year.
Fears over swine flu and economic uncertainty were generally considered to be the two main factors affecting student demand, while Kip ventures that the low value of the UK pound could also have caused the slowdown in numbers in the USA. Ana Wilson of Study Travel USA, which offers courses in New York and Florida, is sure that swine flu led to some cancellations from Brazil. “But things are now normalising,” she ventures.
This viewpoint is again backed up by opinions voiced among the AAIEP community, with one school director summing up: “Fall looks much better again, but we’re crossing our fingers that the flu won’t flare up further, health-wise or in the international media”.
Certainly, Saudi and Libyan enrolments are helping prop up the US market, with strong Chinese enrolments noted at another institution for the autumn intake. Martha Hall at the New England School of English (NESE) in Boston, MA, points to Kazakhstan, Korea and Saudi Arabia as the strongest performing markets at her institution, although she acknowledges that while Korea is a sizeable market (as noted in our statistics), Korean bookings were hit by a few cancellations this year – as were Japanese bookings. Zoilo Nieto at Zoni Group International echoes this observation.
Conversely, Rachel Errington at the University of West Florida in Pensacola, FL, notes good numbers from Korea, as does Caroline Gear from the International Language Institute (ILI) of Massachussets in Northampton, MA. However, Jeanne E Hind, AAIEP Past-President, 2009-2010, reports that overall, “programmes report growth in students coming from China and declines in students from Korea and Japan.”
In terms of other developments in the market, Hind points out that a change in immigration reporting requirements is due to hit schools early next year. “This will impact member programmes in how inquiries, admissions and enrolments are processed and handled with the US Department of Homeland Securities,” she says. “While the impact to the student should be in a positive direction, the impact to schools will task financial and human resources.”
This is a similar situation to the UK, which is tightening up reporting requirements as part of its accreditation-linked visa system. This, however, is something that still eludes the US market, despite political campaigning by AAIEP. Hind relates, “AAIEP continues to support legislative solutions in requiring that all English language training programmes in the United States be accredited in order to enrol non-immigrant students. Currently AAIEP has a bill in both the House and the Senate of the US Congress and has support from the two accrediting bodies for intensive English programmes; Accet and CEA.”
Short-term and work-led trends
“Our students generally look mostly for short-term programmes and work and travel,” says Ana Wilson of Study Travel USA, while Rachel Kip of Rennert New York underlines a rising demand for work and travel programmes: “We are receiving more enquiries for junior programmes, university and certificate programmes as well as internships,” she says. “Work and travel seems to be the big demand!”
Working part-time and studying short-term appears to be an emerging trend in the USA, and Kip observes this could be a sign of the times. “I believe [students] cannot afford the living and housing expenses for longer lengths [of time],” she explains.
Caroline Gear at the International Language Institute (ILI) of Massachusetts in Northampton, MA, agrees and notes that they have adjusted their offerings to accommodate students with a shorter timeframe. “Students seem to want to come for shorter one-month or two-month programmes. We’ve adjusted our schedules and start dates to reflect this trend.”
Richard Brown at BridgeEnglish and BridgeDenver in Denver, CO, says he is witnessing more demand for Ielts test prep courses and more students choosing to study part-time, “in order to avoid having to get student visas”, he relates.
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